Sask's GDP Could Decline by 11.4% with Elimination of NAFTA

Praxis conducts an economic impact scenario analysis to consider: What if Saskatchewan's exports to the U.S. returned to pre-Free Trade Agreement level and structure?

REGINA SK - With NAFTA renegotiations underway, Praxis conducted an economic impact scenario analysis to consider the following: What if Saskatchewan’s exports to the United States (U.S.) returned to pre-Free Trade Agreement levels and structure?

Praxis then extended this analysis to derive the impact of this scenario on the Regina census metropolitan area (CMA). This scenario analysis, represented in 2014 constant dollars, produced the following results:

Provincial Impact Highlights

• Total Saskatchewan merchandise exports to the U.S. could decrease by $9.8 billion
• Provincial GDP could decline by as much as 11.4%
• Employment could drop by almost 6.4% or approximately 36,570 jobs

Regina CMA Impact Highlights

• Total Regina CMA merchandise exports to U.S. could decrease by $1.5 billion
• GDP could decline by approximately 6.7%
• Employment could decrease by 2.5%, representing a loss of almost 3,500 jobs
• Agriculture, resource extraction, manufacturing, finance, transportation, and warehousing would be particularly impacted

For discussions regarding implications of the analysis, contact Valerie Sluth at 306-545-3755

Related Info

• NAFTA Renegotiation –Economic Impact on Provincial and Local Economies (report)
  http://praxis-consulting.ca/images/publications/NAFTA_Scenario_Analysis_Report-Feb_1.pdf