TrendLine Saskatchewan - June 2019


INSIDE


  • Saskatchewan Economy
  • Labour Market
  • Consumer
  • International Trade
  • Construction
  • Culture
  • Population
  • Manufacturing Sales
  • TrendLine Report Card

With a surging labour market and tentative return of the consumer to the marketplace, an impending recovery for the Saskatchewan economy is a firm possibility in the short to medium term.

Average year-to-date employment is up and the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down. The consumer has returned to the market with year-to-date retail sales up (although still below the rate of inflation) and new motor vehicles sales and restaurant receipts posting small increases. 

Construction activity remains in decline with both total building permits and housing starts dropping, however, semi-detached starts and industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery. 

Meanwhile, wholesale trade is up and manufacturing sales and international exports are down.

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Employment

2.5%

Up 14,300 Positions Year Over Year

  Saskatchewan Economy

2019 Saskatchewan GDP Forecast at 1.6%

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Citing Ongoing Uncertainty

With the pace of GDP growth at the national level suggesting that the economy is operating at close to full capacity, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 1.75 per cent on October 24 2018, the highest rate since December 2008. However, the Bank of Canada held the rate at this level in May 2019 with ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts. The next rate announcement is July 10, 2019.

The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 1.6 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 0.8 percent increase in 2018.

2019 GDP Forecast

1.6%

Conference Board of Canada

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -

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  Labour Market

Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 2.0% or 11,000 positions in May 2019 over the same period in 2018.

Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (3,380),    Utilities (340), Manufacturing (2,020), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,980),    Professional, scientific and technical services (1,360), Business, building and other support services (1,480), Educational services (2,640), Health care and social assistance (3,060), Information, culture and recreation (600), Accommodation and food services (2,360),    and Other services (2,020).

Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1840), Construction (-1260), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-4100), Transportation and warehousing (-2340), and Public administration (-640).

The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.5 % in May 2018, to 5.7% in May 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,000 in April 2018 to 34,440 in May 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.

Employment

586,100

Up 2.5% Year over Year

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Labour Market May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
Employment 571800 586100 561740 572740 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.9 5.5 6.5 5.7 - -

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  Consumer

March 2019 year-to-date retail trade is up by 0.2% over the same period in 2018

New Motor Vehicle Sales Up 0.9%

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Used car dealers (10.3%), Gasoline stations (2.8%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (15.6%), Health and personal care stores (0.6%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (0.3%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (3.7%), Grocery stores (6.1%), General merchandise stores (0.8%), and All other (5.9%).

During the same time period New car dealers (-8.5%), Electronics and appliance stores (-35.6%), and Beer, wine and liquor stores (-0.8%) posted declines.

March 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 12.0% over the same period in 2018. Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (0.3%), Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.9%), Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (1.2%), and All other (372.1%) all posted increases while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-3.4%) saw a decline.

March 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were up 0.9% from March year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 4.1% while New passenger cars sales were down -16.6%.

March 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 3.3% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts Full-service restaurants (3.1%) and Limited-service eating places (5.9%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-6.4%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-9.8%).

Consumer Price Index

1.5%

April 2019 Year to Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Consumer Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.5 140.6 136.9 138.9 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1513989 1578063 4201286 4208368 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4302 4425 10731 10826 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2137167 2401486 5265304 5895424 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 153632 159849 426450 440501 - -

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  International Trade

Total International merchandise exports were down -1.1% year-to-date April 2019 over April 2018 with Energy products dropping sharply.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (25.0%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (25.6%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (20.8%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (3.5%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (22.4%), Consumer goods (35.8%), and Special transactions (8.0%). Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-2.5%), Energy products (-18.3%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-13.0%), Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-12.6%), and Motor vehicles and parts (-1.2%).

Merchandise Exports

-1.1%

Year to Date April 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
International Trade Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2648136 2851911 9927771 9821945 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 1076114 973939 4072803 4222438 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1572022 1877972 5854968 5599507 - -

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  Construction

Building Permits Down Overall In Spite of Industrial and Commercial Permit Increases

Housing Starts Down 587 Units

May 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -587 units or -49.0%. Year-to-date increases were observed in semi-detached (12 units or 24.5%). Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-115 units or -27.8%), row (-42 units or -28.2%), and apartment and other types (-442 units or -75.4%).

April 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -1.5% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: industrial (55.7%) and commercial (22.5%). During the same time period, residential (-29.8%) and institutional and governmental (-13.5%) posted declines.

Construction employment continued to decline in 2018 and in the first 5 months month of 2019. Year-to-date May construction employment was down by 1,260 positions from the same period in 2018 in tandem with weak housing and building permit activity.

Building Permits

-1.5%

April 2019 Year-to-Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Construction May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 329 194 1198 611 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 200742 234002 535510 527256 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 84892 53807 237933 167146 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 115850 180195 297577 360110 - -

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  Culture

Culture Employment Up May 2019 Over 2018

Year-to-date employment in May 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation (600).

Culture & Recreation Employment

+600

Positions

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  Population

Modest Population Growth Expected Through 2019

International In-Migration Strong

2019 Q1 Provincial population was up 1% over 2018 Q1 to 1,168,423 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue through 2019 with a recovering labour market.

Population

1,168,423

1% Increase Over Q1 2018

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Population 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1156964 1168423 - - - -

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  Manufacturing Sales

Manufacturing Sales Down 1.1% Year to Date

March 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales are down by -1.1% over the same period in 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were:

  • Food manufacturing sales (16.9%)
  • Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (40.3%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were:

  • Chemical manufacturing sales (-18.3%)
  • Machinery manufacturing sales (-3.0%)
  • All other Manufacturing sales (-2.4%). 

Fabricated Metal Products

40.3%

March 2019 Year to Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Manufacturing Sales Mar 2018 Mar 2019 Change % Change Mar 2018 Mar 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1562053 1441748 4557601 4508046 - -

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  TrendLine Report Card - June 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -
Labour Market May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
Employment 571800 586100 561740 572740 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.9 5.5 6.5 5.7 - -
Consumer Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.5 140.6 136.9 138.9 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1513989 1578063 4201286 4208368 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4302 4425 10731 10826 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2137167 2401486 5265304 5895424 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 153632 159849 426450 440501 - -
International Trade Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change Apr 2018 Apr 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2648136 2851911 9927771 9821945 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 1076114 973939 4072803 4222438 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1572022 1877972 5854968 5599507 - -
Construction May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 329 194 1198 611 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 200742 234002 535510 527256 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 84892 53807 237933 167146 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 115850 180195 297577 360110 - -
Culture Change % Change Change % Change
Population 2018 Q1 2019 Q1 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1156964 1168423 - - - -
Manufacturing Sales Mar 2018 Mar 2019 Change % Change Mar 2018 Mar 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1562053 1441748 4557601 4508046 - -

Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Winter 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted.

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Related Issues

TrendLine May 2019


This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

This Issue's Editor:

Jennifer Longo

BAH, MBA
Strategic Research Consultant


TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.