TrendLine Saskatchewan - August 2019


INSIDE


  • Saskatchewan Economy
  • Labour Market
  • Consumer
  • International Trade
  • Construction
  • Culture
  • Population
  • Manufacturing Sales
  • TrendLine Report Card

Despite a surging labour market, the consumer has still not fully re-entered the market...

Year-to-date retail sales are up 0.9% (although still below the rate of inflation). Restaurant receipts are posting increases, while new motor vehicle sales have tapered off slightly.

Average year-to-date employment is up and both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down.

Residential construction activity remains soft with both building permits and housing starts dropping, however, industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery. Meanwhile, wholesale trade is advancing strongly, while international exports are up marginally and manufacturing sales are down.

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Retail trade

0.9%

Up $69,584 year-to-date

  Saskatchewan Economy

2019 Saskatchewan GDP Forecast at 2.2% Gain

Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Overnight Rate Steady in its September 2019 Rate Announcement

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to hold its overnight rate steady in its September 2019 rate announcement with a strong, but slowing, domestic economy being balanced by ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts. 

The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018. 


2019 GDP Forecast

2.2%

Conference Board of Canada

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -

Back to Top

  Labour Market

Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 1.9% or 10,914 positions in July 2019 over the same period in 2018.

Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (3,157), Manufacturing (2,114), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,414), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,729), Business, building and other support services (1,186), Educational services (1,957), Health care and social assistance (2,771), Information, culture and recreation (957), Accommodation and food services (3,371), and Other services (1,886). 

Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1,457), Utilities (-57), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3,543), Transportation and warehousing (-2,071), and Public administration (-457).      

The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.4% in July 2018 to 5.6% in July 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,000 in July 2018 to 34,100 in July 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.

    Employment

    10,914

    Up 1.9% year-to-date

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    Labour Market Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
    Employment 571400 583600 566257 577171 - -
    Unemployment Rate (%) 7.1 6.1 6.4 5.6 - -

    Back to Top

      Consumer

    May 2019 year-to-date retail trade up 0.9% over the same period in 2018

    Wholesale trade up 8.4%

    May 2019 year-to-date retail trade is up by 0.9% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were Gasoline stations (5.5%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (1.9%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (1.2%), Health and personal care stores (2.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (1.8%), Grocery stores (4.5%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (0.5%), and General merchandise stores (1.9%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-4.7%), Electronics and appliance stores (-34.1%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-3.5%), and All other (-11.4%) posted declines.

    May 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -1.3% from May year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 1.0%, while New passenger cars sales were down -14.1%. 

    May 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 8.4% over the same period in 2018. Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (1.3%) posted an increase while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-6.7%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-6.1%), and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-3.1%) saw declines.

    May 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 3.3% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (4.0%) and Limited-service eating places (5.2%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-6.8%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-10.5%).         

    Consumer Price Index

    1.7%

    June 2019 year-to-date % increase

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    Consumer Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
    Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.5 140.2 137.1 139.5 - -
    Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1870954 1874401 7681198 7750782 - -
    New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4974 4791 20294 20036 - -
    Wholesale Trade ($000s) 3462308 3280534 11000611 11928912 - -
    Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 163851 168747 746908 771540 - -

    Back to Top

      International Trade

    Total International merchandise exports up 0.4% year-to-date June 2019 over June 2018

    Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (26.0%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (30.2%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (9.8%), Motor vehicles and parts (13.8%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (415.9%), Consumer goods (31.6%), and Special transactions (6.1%).

    Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-0.8%), Energy products (-14.0%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-2.7%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-22.0%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-24.9%).

    International Trade Domestic Exports

    0.4%

    June 2019 year-to-date % increase

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    International Trade Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
    International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2607137 2475239 15256169 15319264 - -
    International Trade Imports ($000s) 1128786 1121815 6292939 6457401 - -
    Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1478351 1353424 8963230 8861863 - -

    Back to Top

      Construction

    Year-to-date July Construction Employment Down 4.2%

    Construction employment continued to decline in 2018 and into the first 7 months of 2019. With weak housing and residential building permit activity, year-to-date July construction employment is down by 2,014 positions or 4.2% from the same period in 2018.

    July 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -712 units or -42.7% as the market continues to struggle with over-supply and tighter borrowing rules. Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-194 units or -27.6%), semi-detached (-15 units or -15.0%), row (-65 units or -33.2%), and apartment and other types (-438 units or -65.3%).

    June 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -2.4% over the same period in 2018.   Sub sectors that posted increases were: Industrial (6.6%) and commercial (32.3%). During the same time period, residential (-23.4%) and institutional and governmental (-21.4%) posted declines.

    Construction Employment

    2,014

    Positions

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    Construction Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
    Housing Starts Total (Units) 235 125 1669 957 - -
    Building Permits Total ($000s) 141341 173513 887159 866136 - -
    Building Permits Residential ($000s) 84895 84926 422248 323341 - -
    Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 56446 88587 464911 542795 - -

    Back to Top

      Culture

    July 2019 Year-To-Date Employment is Up in Information, Culture and Recreation

    Year-to-date employment in July 2019 was up 4.7% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.

    Information, Culture & Recreation

    957

    Positions

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    Culture Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
    Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 21800 23300 20257 21214 - -

    Back to Top

      Population

    Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019

    2019 Q2 Provincial population was up 0.9% over 2018 Q2 to 1,169,131 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019 with a surging labour market.

    Provincial Population

    1,169,131

    0.9% Increase Over Q2 2018

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    Population 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 Change % Change - - - -
    Population (persons) 1158836 1169131 - - - -

    Back to Top

      Manufacturing Sales

    May 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 5.6%

    May 2019 year to date manufacturing sales are down by -5.6% over the same period in 2018.

    Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (5.5%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (37.6%).

    Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Chemical manufacturing sales (-28.4%), Machinery manufacturing sales (-5.1%), and All other Manufacturing sales (-2.3%).

    Manufacturing Sales

    $442,439

    5.6% Decline Year-to-Date

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    Manufacturing Sales May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
    Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1823995 1476927 7867435 7424996 - -

    Back to Top

      TrendLine Report Card - August 2019

    INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
    Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
    Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -
    Labour Market Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
    Employment 571400 583600 566257 577171 - -
    Unemployment Rate (%) 7.1 6.1 6.4 5.6 - -
    Consumer Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
    Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.5 140.2 137.1 139.5 - -
    Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1870954 1874401 7681198 7750782 - -
    New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4974 4791 20294 20036 - -
    Wholesale Trade ($000s) 3462308 3280534 11000611 11928912 - -
    Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 163851 168747 746908 771540 - -
    International Trade Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
    International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2607137 2475239 15256169 15319264 - -
    International Trade Imports ($000s) 1128786 1121815 6292939 6457401 - -
    Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1478351 1353424 8963230 8861863 - -
    Construction Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
    Housing Starts Total (Units) 235 125 1669 957 - -
    Building Permits Total ($000s) 141341 173513 887159 866136 - -
    Building Permits Residential ($000s) 84895 84926 422248 323341 - -
    Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 56446 88587 464911 542795 - -
    Culture Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
    Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 21800 23300 20257 21214 - -
    Population 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 Change % Change - - - -
    Population (persons) 1158836 1169131 - - - -
    Manufacturing Sales May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
    Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1823995 1476927 7867435 7424996 - -

    Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview.

    Back to Top

    Available Downloads


    This Issue's Economist:

    Stephen Johnson

    MA
    Senior Economist

    This Issue's Editor:

    Jennifer Longo

    BAH, MBA
    Strategic Research Consultant


    TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.