TrendLine Saskatchewan - July 2019


INSIDE


  • Saskatchewan Economy
  • Labour Market
  • Consumer
  • International Trade
  • Construction
  • Culture
  • Population
  • Manufacturing Sales
  • TrendLine Report Card

Despite a surging labour market, the consumer remains cautious...

Year-to-date retail sales are up 1% (although still below the rate of inflation) with restaurant receipts posting increases and new motor vehicle sales tapering off slightly.

Average year-to-date employment is up and both the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed are down.

Construction activity remains muted with both total building permits and housing starts dropping, however, industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery. Meanwhile, wholesale trade and international exports are both up and manufacturing sales are down.

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Retail trade

1.0%

Up $56,485 year-to-date

  Saskatchewan Economy

2019 Saskatchewan GDP Forecast at 1.6%

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Citing Ongoing Uncertainty Related to Trade Conflicts

With the pace of GDP growth at the national level suggesting that the economy is operating at close to full capacity, the Bank of Canada raised the overnight rate to 1.75 per cent on October 24 2018, the highest rate since December 2008. However, the Bank of Canada held the rate at this level in July 2019 with domestic improvements being balanced by ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts. The next rate announcement is September 4, 2019.

The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 1.6 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 0.8 percent increase in 2018.

2019 GDP Forecast

1.6%

Conference Board of Canada

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -

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  Labour Market

Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 1.9% or 10,700 positions in June 2019 over the same period in 2018.

Year-to-date employment in June 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Agriculture (3,083), Utilities (200), Manufacturing (2,000), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,667), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,633), Business, building and other support services (1,467), Educational services (2,567), Health care and social assistance (2,750), Information, culture and recreation (867), Accommodation and food services (2,867), and Other services (1,917).

Year-to-date employment in June 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1,700), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3,733), Transportation and warehousing (-2,367), and Public administration (-617).

The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in June 2018, to 5.5% in June 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 34,440 in May 2018 to 33,450 in June 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.

Employment

576,100

Up 1.9% year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Labour Market Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Employment 583700 592900 565400 576100 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 4.6 6.3 5.5 - -

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  Consumer

April 2019 year-to-date retail trade up 1.0% over the same period in 2018

Restaurant receipts up 3.2%

April 2019 year-to-date retail trade is up by 1.0% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: Gasoline stations (4.2%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (0.7%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (9.1%), Health and personal care stores (1.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (2.1%), Grocery stores (5.6%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (1.3%), General merchandise stores (3.3%), and All other (7.9%).

During the same time period, New car dealers (-6.0%), Used car dealers (-3.0%), Electronics and appliance stores (-33.5%), and Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-0.2%) posted declines.

April 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 13.9% over the same period in 2018. Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (3.5%), and All other (424.7%) all posted increases, while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-0.3%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-4.0%), and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-1.0%) saw declines. 

April 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -0.5% from March year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 2.0% while  New passenger cars sales were down -14.2%.

April 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 3.2% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (3.2%) and Limited-service eating places (5.7%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-6.5%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-11.2%).

Consumer Price Index

1.6%

May 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Consumer May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.9 140.8 137.1 139.3 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1608958 1651915 5810244 5866729 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4589 4419 15320 15245 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2272999 2707317 7538303 8588854 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 156607 160774 583057 601744 - -

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  International Trade

Total International merchandise exports were up 1.6% year-to-date May 2019 over May 2018

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (29.1%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (15.7%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (28.6%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (5.7%), Motor vehicles and parts (1.9%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (316.7%), Consumer goods (31.3%), and Special transactions (8.3%). Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-1.5%), Energy products (-12.0%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-18.1%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-23.7%).

International Merchandise Exports

1.6%

May 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
International Trade May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2706497 3039584 12634268 12833831 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 1091223 1035190 5164026 5334542 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1615274 2004394 7470242 7499289 - -

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  Construction

Year-to-date June construction employment was down by 1,883 positions from the same period in 2018 in tandem with weak housing and residential building permit activity.

Construction employment continued to decline in 2018 and into the first 6 months of 2019. Year-to-date June construction employment was down by 1,883 positions from the same period in 2018 in tandem with weak housing and residential building permit activity.

June 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -602 units or -42.0%. Year-to-date declines were noted in singles (-128 units or -23.4%), semi-detached (-4 units or -5.3%), row (-48 units or -27.3%), and apartment and other types (-422 units or -66.6%)

May 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -7.1% over the same period in 2018.     

Sub sectors that posted increases were limited to industrial (12.4%) and commercial (22.9%). During the same time period, residential (-29.3%) and institutional and governmental (-23.0%) posted declines.


Construction Employment

1,883

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Construction Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 236 241 1434 832 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 210308 166985 745818 692623 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 99420 75155 337353 238415 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 110888 91830 408465 454208 - -

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  Culture

Culture Employment Up June 2019 Year-to-Date

Year-to-date employment in June 2019 was up over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation (867).

Information, Culture & Recreation

867

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Culture Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 20400 22600 20000 20867 - -

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  Population

Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019

2019 Q2 Provincial population was up 0.9% over 2018 Q2 to 1,169,131 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019 with a surging labour market.

Provincial Population

1,169,131

0.9% Increase Over Q2 2018

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Population 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1158836 1169131 - - - -

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  Manufacturing Sales

Manufacturing Sales Up 2% Year to Date

Saskatchewan manufacturing sub sectors that posted increases were:

  • Food manufacturing sales (24.7%)
  • Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (5.6%)

Sub sectors that posted decreases were:

  • Chemical manufacturing sales (-11.0%)
  • Machinery manufacturing sales (-6.5%)
  • All other Manufacturing sales (-2.8%)  

Food Manufacturing Sales

24.7%

February 2019 Year-to-Date

Machinery Manufacturing Sales

-6.5%

February 2019 Year-to-Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Manufacturing Sales Feb 2018 Feb 2019 Change % Change Feb 2018 Feb 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1397131 1383267 3004741 3065014 - -

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  TrendLine Report Card - July 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -
Labour Market Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Employment 583700 592900 565400 576100 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 5.6 4.6 6.3 5.5 - -
Consumer May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 137.9 140.8 137.1 139.3 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1608958 1651915 5810244 5866729 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4589 4419 15320 15245 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2272999 2707317 7538303 8588854 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 156607 160774 583057 601744 - -
International Trade May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change May 2018 May 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2706497 3039584 12634268 12833831 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 1091223 1035190 5164026 5334542 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1615274 2004394 7470242 7499289 - -
Construction Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 236 241 1434 832 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 210308 166985 745818 692623 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 99420 75155 337353 238415 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 110888 91830 408465 454208 - -
Culture Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 20400 22600 20000 20867 - -
Population 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1158836 1169131 - - - -
Manufacturing Sales Feb 2018 Feb 2019 Change % Change Feb 2018 Feb 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1397131 1383267 3004741 3065014 - -

Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Winter 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview.

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Available Downloads


This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

This Issue's Editor:

Jennifer Longo

BAH, MBA
Strategic Research Consultant


TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.