TrendLine Saskatchewan - September 2019


INSIDE


  • Saskatchewan Economy
  • Labour Market
  • Consumer
  • International Trade
  • Construction
  • Culture
  • Population
  • Manufacturing Sales
  • TrendLine Report Card

Despite a robust labour market with strong employment, the consumer seems to have retreated from the market...

While year-to-date employment continues to advance and both the unemployment rate and the number of employed are in decline, year-to-date retail sales are down 0.8%. New motor vehicle sales have also dropped 2.3%.

Residential construction activity remains in the doldrums with both building permits and housing starts dropping, however, industrial and commercial building permits are in recovery.

Meanwhile, wholesale trade is advancing strongly while international exports and manufacturing sales are down.

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

Composite Indicator Actual & Seasonally Adjusted

Key Indicator This Month

Retail trade

0.8%

Down $73,040 year-to-date

  Saskatchewan Economy

Slowing Domestic Economy Amid Ongoing Uncertainty Related to Trade Conflicts

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate Steady

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady in its September 2019 rate announcement with inflation remaining in its target range. However, there are downside risks ahead with higher US-China tariff rates scheduled for mid-December. The next announcement on the overnight rate target is October 30, 2019.

The Conference Board of Canada forecasts the Provincial economy to post a 2.2 per cent real GDP gain in 2019, following a 1.8 percent increase in 2018.  

2019 GDP Forecast

2.2%

Conference Board of Canada

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -

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  Labour Market

Year-to-Date Employment up 2.0% in August 2019

Total average year-to-date employment in Saskatchewan was up 2.0% or 11,175 positions in August 2019 over the same period in 2018.   

Year-to-date employment in August 2019 was up in Agriculture (2,887), Manufacturing (2,275), Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (1,275), Professional, scientific and technical services (1,913), Business, building and other support services (775), Educational services (1,625), Health care and social assistance (2,613), Information, culture and recreation (1,063), Accommodation and food services (3,500), and Other services (2,050).

Year-to-date employment in August 2019 was down in Resource Extraction (-1188), Utilities (-300), Construction (-1800), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3463), Transportation and warehousing (-1900), and Public administration (-137). 

The average year-to-date unemployment rate dropped from 6.6% in August 2018, to 5.7% in August 2019. Year-to-date, the average number of unemployed is down from 39,900 in August 2018 to 34,600 in August 2019 with the majority of these being absorbed into the employed labour force.

Employment

11,175

Positions

Unemployment Rate

5.7%

August 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Labour Market Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Employment 574400 587400 567275 578450 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.4 6.1 6.6 5.7 - -

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  Consumer

June 2019 year-to-date retail trade down 0.8% over the same period in 2018

Wholesale trade up 6.7%

June 2019 year-to-date retail trade is down by -0.8% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were limited to Gasoline stations (3.8%), Furniture and home furnishings stores (0.5%), Health and personal care stores (2.0%), Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores (2.1%), Grocery stores (3.4%), and General merchandise stores (1.0%). During the same time period, New car dealers (-8.3%), Electronics and appliance stores (-32.5%), Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers (-1.4%), Clothing and clothing accessories stores (-3.5%), Beer, wine and liquor stores (-2.2%), and All other (-12.3%) posted declines.

June 2019 year-to-date new motor vehicle sales were down -2.3% from June year-to-date 2018. New minivans, sport-utility vehicles, light and heavy trucks, vans and buses sales were up 0.2%, while new passenger cars sales were down -14.4%.

June 2019 year-to-date wholesale trade was up 6.7% over the same period in 2018.  Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers (0.6%) and All other (523.2%) posted increases, while Farm product merchant wholesalers (-6.4%), Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers (-9.4%), and Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (-5.9%) saw declines.

June 2019 year-to-date restaurant receipts were up 2.6% over the same period in 2018. Within restaurant receipts, Full-service restaurants (3.2%) and Limited-service eating places (4.6%) increased. At the same time, declines were noted in Special food services (-5.6%) and Drinking places (alcoholic beverages) (-12.1%).

Retail Trade

0.8%

July 2019 year-to-date

Wholesale Trade

6.7%

July 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Consumer Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 138.0 140.7 137.3 139.6 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1842119 1712694 9523317 9450277 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4992 4658 25286 24694 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2503689 2468254 13504300 14411898 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 165732 164321 912640 936799 - -

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  International Trade

Total International Merchandise Exports Down 0.4% Year-to-Date July 2019

Total International merchandise exports were down -0.4% year-to-date July 2019 over July 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Metal ores and non-metallic minerals (23.8%), Basic and industrial chemical, plastic and rubber products (28.2%), Industrial machinery, equipment and parts (8.0%), Motor vehicles and parts (16.4%), Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts (422.3%), Consumer goods (33.3%), and Special transactions (5.1%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Farm, fishing and intermediate food products (-3.0%), Energy products (-11.5%), Metal and non-metallic mineral products (-9.9%), Forestry products and building and packaging materials (-23.3%), and Electronic and electrical equipment and parts (-26.0%).

Total International Merchandise Exports

0.4%

July 2019 year-to-date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
International Trade Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2561885 2416056 17818054 17739333 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 934933 1089648 7227872 7547454 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1478351 1353424 8963230 8861863 - -

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  Construction

Year-to-date August Construction Employment Down 3.7%

Construction employment declined throughout 2018 and into the first 8 months of 2019. With weak housing and residential building permit activity, year-to-date August construction employment was down by 1,800 positions or 3.7% from the same period in 2018.

August 2019, total year-to-date housing starts are down by -727 units or -37.7%.  Year-to-date declines were wide spread and noted in singles (-192 units or -24.0%), semi-detached (-23 units or -20.2%), row (-63 units or -29.3%), and apartment and other types (-449 units or -56.3%).

July 2019 year-to-date building permits are down -5.2% over the same period in 2018. Sub sectors that posted increases were: industrial (2.4%) and commercial (25.6%). During the same time period, residential (-19.6%) and institutional and governmental (-35.2%) posted declines.

Construction Employment

1,800

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Construction Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 258 243 1927 1200 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 173368 130428 1060527 1005019 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 77145 70550 499393 401559 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 96223 59878 561134 603460 - -

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  Culture

August 2019 Year-To-Date Employment Up in Information, Culture and Recreation

Year-to-date employment in August 2019 was up 5.2% over the same period in 2018 in Information, culture and recreation.

Information, Culture & Recreation

1,063

Positions

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Culture Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 22300 24100 20513 21575 - -

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  Population

Population Expected to Continue Growing Throughout the Rest of 2019

2019 Q2 Provincial population was up 0.9% over 2018 Q2 to 1,169,131 on the strength of international in-migration. This can be expected to continue throughout the rest of 2019 with a surging labour market.

Provincial Population

1,169,131

0.9% Increase Over Q2 2018

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Population 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1158836 1169131 - - - -

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  Manufacturing Sales

June 2019 Year-to-Date Manufacturing Sales Down 7.7%

June 2019 year-to-date manufacturing sales were down by -7.7% over the same period in 2018.

Sub sectors that posted increases were: Food manufacturing sales (2.7%), and Fabricated metal product manufacturing sales (35.9%).

Sub sectors that posted decreases were: Chemical manufacturing sales (-28.8%), Machinery manufacturing sales (-4.0%), and All other Manufacturing sales (-7.0%).

Manufacturing Sales

7.7%

June 2019 Year-to-Date

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Manufacturing Sales Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1460450 1186467 9327885 8610111 - -

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  TrendLine Report Card - September 2019

INDICATOR MONTH TO MONTH YEAR TO DATE
Saskatchewan Economy 2018 2019 (Forecast) Change % Change - - - -
Gross Domestic Product (2007 $M) 60978 61924 - - - -
Labour Market Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Employment 574400 587400 567275 578450 - -
Unemployment Rate (%) 7.4 6.1 6.6 5.7 - -
Consumer Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
Consumer Price Index (2002=100) 138.0 140.7 137.3 139.6 - -
Retail Trade Total ($000s) 1842119 1712694 9523317 9450277 - -
New Motor Vehicle Sales (units) 4992 4658 25286 24694 - -
Wholesale Trade ($000s) 2503689 2468254 13504300 14411898 - -
Restaurant Receipts ($000s) 165732 164321 912640 936799 - -
International Trade Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Change % Change
International Trade Domestic Exports ($000s) 2561885 2416056 17818054 17739333 - -
International Trade Imports ($000s) 934933 1089648 7227872 7547454 - -
Net International Merchandise Trade ($000s) 1478351 1353424 8963230 8861863 - -
Construction Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Housing Starts Total (Units) 258 243 1927 1200 - -
Building Permits Total ($000s) 173368 130428 1060527 1005019 - -
Building Permits Residential ($000s) 77145 70550 499393 401559 - -
Building Permits Non-Residential ($000s) 96223 59878 561134 603460 - -
Culture Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change Aug 2018 Aug 2019 Change % Change
Employment Information, Culture and Recreation 22300 24100 20513 21575 - -
Population 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 Change % Change - - - -
Population (persons) 1158836 1169131 - - - -
Manufacturing Sales Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Change % Change
Manufacturing Sales Total ($000s) 1460450 1186467 9327885 8610111 - -

Sources: Statistics Canada Tables 14-10-0017-01, 34-10-0143-01, 14-10-0355-01, 18-10-0004-01, 34-10-0066-01, 17-10-0005-01, 17-10-0008-01, 20-10-0008-01, 16-10-0048-01, 20-10-0001-01, 21-10-0019-01, 12-10-0012-01 and Conference Board of Canada Metropolitan Outlook Spring 2019. Note: All data presented above is raw/not seasonally adjusted. Some date headings may not apply to every indicator in each sector. Please link to the additional tables for a comprehensive data overview.

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This Issue's Economist:

Stephen Johnson

MA
Senior Economist

This Issue's Editor:

Jennifer Longo

BAH, MBA
Strategic Research Consultant


TrendLine Saskatchewan is published monthly by Praxis Consulting.